Daily Market Brief · 21 September 2026 · archive
What actually sold, and what it changed.
Computed at 2026-09-20 23:31 UTC from Hoshino's own recorded sales — real transactions only, compared inside one grade tier and one market. Where a day has too little data to say something true, this brief says so.
17,001Real sales · 7 days
4,474Cards traded · 7 days
17Venues reporting
9,789Inferred sales (excluded)
Of those 17,001 sales, 7,221 come from venues that publish no sale date — Mercari Japan chief among them — so their date is the day we recorded the sale, not the day it sold. Every entry below that rests on one says so.
Movers
Biggest real median moves, inside one grade tier and one market. A card only appears with at least 5 real recorded sales in each half of the comparison, the same venues on both sides, a new median outside the prior window's middle 50%, and a price spread tight enough to be one card rather than a catalog bucket. Some venues publish no sale date — Mercari Japan publishes none at all — so where an entry's two halves are separated by when we recorded the sales rather than by elapsed market time, the entry says so, and the move is a change between two cohorts rather than a measured interval.
Last 24hdated by sale where the venue publishes one, otherwise by the day we recorded it (720 of 1,360 this window)
No 24h mover clears the bar: 1,360 real sales carry a date inside the window against 3,350 in the one before it, and of 661 card/tier/market series examined, 661 had too few sales on one side. Nothing is listed rather than something padded.
Last 7ddated by sale where the venue publishes one, otherwise by the day we recorded it (7,221 of 17,001 this window)
+54.8%$31.00 → $47.99 median
5 real sales this window against 5 in the one before, every one of them PSA 9 in North America. Venues this window: PokéPriceTracker; PokéPriceTracker also carried the previous window, covering 100% of these sales and 100% of those — so this is a price change, not a change of venue. The new median sits outside the prior window's middle 50% ($29.99–$32.00). Most recent sale behind it: $39.99 on PokéPriceTracker.
-50.1%$18.00 → $8.98 median
9 real sales dated inside this window against 12 in the one before, every one of them Raw NM in Japan. 1 of these 9 sales, and 8 of the 12 before them, come from Snkrdunk, which publishes no sale date — for those rows the date we hold is the day we recorded the sale, an upper bound on when it sold. So what separates the two windows is part elapsed market time and part collection schedule, and this is not a measured seven-day move. Venues this window: Yahoo! Japan Auctions, Snkrdunk; Yahoo! Japan Auctions, Snkrdunk also carried the previous window, covering 100% of these sales and 100% of those — so this is a price change, not a change of venue. The new median sits outside the prior window's middle 50% ($9.59–$18.00). Most recent sale behind it: $18.00 on Snkrdunk.
-22.3%$193 → $150 median
13 real sales dated inside this window against 14 in the one before, every one of them Raw NM in Japan. 7 of these 13 sales, and 12 of the 14 before them, come from Snkrdunk, which publishes no sale date — for those rows the date we hold is the day we recorded the sale, an upper bound on when it sold. So what separates the two windows is part elapsed market time and part collection schedule, and this is not a measured seven-day move. Venues this window: Snkrdunk, Yahoo! Japan Auctions; Snkrdunk, Yahoo! Japan Auctions also carried the previous window, covering 100% of these sales and 100% of those — so this is a price change, not a change of venue. The new median sits outside the prior window's middle 50% ($172–$204). Most recent sale behind it: $149 on Snkrdunk.
-22.2%$7,637 → $5,944 median
6 real sales dated inside this window against 6 in the one before, every one of them PSA 10 in Japan. Every one of these sales, and every one of the 6 before them, comes from Snkrdunk, which publishes no sale date — for those rows the date we hold is the day we recorded the sale, an upper bound on when it sold. So the two windows are separated by when we looked rather than by seven days of market time: read this as a change between what we recorded in one stretch and what we recorded in the one before, not as a measured seven-day move. Venues this window: Snkrdunk; Snkrdunk also carried the previous window, covering 100% of these sales and 100% of those — so this is a price change, not a change of venue. The new median sits outside the prior window's middle 50% ($7,258–$7,831). Most recent sale behind it: $5,735 on Snkrdunk.
-21.9%$2,850 → $2,225 median
14 real sales this window against 20 in the one before, every one of them PSA 10 in North America. Venues this window: PokéPriceTracker; PokéPriceTracker also carried the previous window, covering 100% of these sales and 95% of those — so this is a price change, not a change of venue. The new median sits outside the prior window's middle 50% ($2,604–$3,105). Most recent sale behind it: $2,000 on PokéPriceTracker.
The Japan–West gap
Where the same card, in the same grade tier, sells for less in Japan than in the West — and whether the gap survives freight, the import tariff and the selling fee. 30-day medians, at least 3 real sales on each side. Some venues publish no sale date — Mercari Japan publishes none at all — and on a side made of those, the 30 days are the days we recorded the sales rather than the days they sold. Each entry says which of its sides that applies to; the medians are real prices either way.
+164.3%Japan $8.38 vs Europe $22.15
| Japan median · 13 real sales | $8.38 |
| Shipping Japan → Europe | $16.00 |
| Import tax (20%) | $1.68 |
| Landed cost | $26.06 |
| Europe median · 3 real sales | $22.15 |
| Less Cardmarket selling fee | −$1.11 |
| Net proceeds | $21.04 |
| Net of everything | −$5.02 |
Does not clear the round trip: freight, the 20% import tariff and the selling fee are larger than the gap. Both sides are Raw NM over 30 days. Japanese sale: $9.67 on Yahoo! Japan Auctions (closed auction — Yahoo! Japan Auctions removes the page once it ends). Western sale: $29.06 on eBay (eurozone).
+139.3%Japan $13.89 vs United States $33.24
| Japan median · 4 real sales | $13.89 |
| Shipping Japan → United States | $14.00 |
| Import tax (15%) | $2.08 |
| Landed cost | $29.97 |
| United States median · 3 real sales | $33.24 |
| Less eBay selling fee | −$4.80 |
| Net proceeds | $28.44 |
| Net of everything | −$1.53 |
Does not clear the round trip: freight, the 15% import tariff and the selling fee are larger than the gap. Both sides are Raw NM over 30 days. 1 of the 4 Japanese sales come from Mercari Japan, which publishes no sale date, so for those rows the 30 days are the days we recorded the sales rather than the days they sold. The two medians are still real prices from real sales; what we cannot claim is that they are dated to the day. Japanese sale: $18.70 on Mercari Japan. Western sale: $25.00 on eBay (US).
+131.0%Japan $6.49 vs United States $14.99
| Japan median · 6 real sales | $6.49 |
| Shipping Japan → United States | $14.00 |
| Import tax (15%) | $0.97 |
| Landed cost | $21.46 |
| United States median · 7 real sales | $14.99 |
| Less eBay selling fee | −$2.39 |
| Net proceeds | $12.60 |
| Net of everything | −$8.86 |
Does not clear the round trip: freight, the 15% import tariff and the selling fee are larger than the gap. Both sides are Raw NM over 30 days. 2 of the 6 Japanese sales come from Snkrdunk and Mercari Japan, which publish no sale date, so for those rows the 30 days are the days we recorded the sales rather than the days they sold. The two medians are still real prices from real sales; what we cannot claim is that they are dated to the day. Japanese sale: $6.48 on Mercari Japan. Western sale: $17.00 on eBay (US).
+129.3%Japan $9.59 vs United States $22.00
| Japan median · 12 real sales | $9.59 |
| Shipping Japan → United States | $14.00 |
| Import tax (15%) | $1.44 |
| Landed cost | $25.04 |
| United States median · 10 real sales | $22.00 |
| Less eBay selling fee | −$3.32 |
| Net proceeds | $18.68 |
| Net of everything | −$6.36 |
Does not clear the round trip: freight, the 15% import tariff and the selling fee are larger than the gap. Both sides are Raw NM over 30 days. 11 of the 12 Japanese sales come from Mercari Japan and Snkrdunk, which publish no sale date, so for those rows the 30 days are the days we recorded the sales rather than the days they sold. The two medians are still real prices from real sales; what we cannot claim is that they are dated to the day. Japanese sale: $8.63 on Mercari Japan. Western sale: $31.00 on eBay (US).
+122.8%Japan $5.93 vs Europe $13.20
| Japan median · 4 real sales | $5.93 |
| Shipping Japan → Europe | $16.00 |
| Import tax (20%) | $1.19 |
| Landed cost | $23.12 |
| Europe median · 3 real sales | $13.20 |
| Less Cardmarket selling fee | −$0.66 |
| Net proceeds | $12.54 |
| Net of everything | −$10.58 |
Does not clear the round trip: freight, the 20% import tariff and the selling fee are larger than the gap. Both sides are Raw NM over 30 days. Japanese sale: $6.50 on Yahoo! Japan Auctions (closed auction — Yahoo! Japan Auctions removes the page once it ends). Western sale: $12.19 on eBay UK.
+119.4%Japan $5.18 vs United States $11.37
| Japan median · 5 real sales | $5.18 |
| Shipping Japan → United States | $14.00 |
| Import tax (15%) | $0.78 |
| Landed cost | $19.96 |
| United States median · 8 real sales | $11.37 |
| Less eBay selling fee | −$1.90 |
| Net proceeds | $9.46 |
| Net of everything | −$10.50 |
Does not clear the round trip: freight, the 15% import tariff and the selling fee are larger than the gap. Both sides are Raw NM over 30 days. Japanese sale: $3.82 on Yahoo! Japan Auctions (closed auction — Yahoo! Japan Auctions removes the page once it ends). Western sale: $10.33 on eBay (US).
Of 28,866 card/grade combinations with real sales on either side in the last 30 days, 57 cleared every gate: 48 cheaper in Japan, 9 cheaper in the West, 0 clearing freight, tariff and selling fees on today's medians.
Grading
Cards where a real graded sale or a population change moved the grading-EV maths since the last brief.
+$33.46expected value $121 → $154 via PSA Super Express
Costed at $529 all-in against an expected sale of $684; break-even needs a 0% chance of a 10, modelled at 1% from the recorded population for this card. Population for PSA 7 moved 2,451 → 2,455 between 2026-09-19 and 2026-09-20.
+$23.66expected value −$0.48 → $23.18 via PSA Japan Value
The verdict moved from Not worth grading to Worth grading. Costed at $86.00 all-in against an expected sale of $109; break-even needs a 0% chance of a 10, modelled at 1% from the recorded population for this card. Population for PSA 3 moved 94 → 95 between 2026-09-19 and 2026-09-20.
+$20.20expected value $67.31 → $87.51 via BGS Express
Costed at $117 all-in against an expected sale of $204; break-even needs a 0% chance of a 10, modelled at 1% from the recorded population for this card. Population for PSA 9 moved 4,945 → 4,947 between 2026-09-19 and 2026-09-20.
−$8.50expected value $40.92 → $32.42 via PSA Japan Regular
Costed at $93.98 all-in against an expected sale of $126; break-even needs a 0% chance of a 10, modelled at 2% from the recorded population for this card. Population for PSA 7 moved 358 → 490 between 2026-09-19 and 2026-09-20.
−$8.34expected value $59.38 → $51.04 via PSA Japan Value
Costed at $47.95 all-in against an expected sale of $98.99; break-even needs a 0% chance of a 10, modelled at 22% from the recorded population for this card. Population for PSA 7 moved 60 → 114 between 2026-09-19 and 2026-09-20.
Fresh supply
Sets released in the last 45 days that are actually trading.
No set released in the last 45 days has 3 or more real recorded sales this week. 76 sets carry a release date in the window; 13 of them were rejected because their recorded sales mostly predate their stated release date, which means the date is a rolling catalog stamp, not a release.
Population
Graded populations that grew between the two most recent days we recorded them.
+13slabs · 427 → 440 (+3.0%)
Between the population reports we recorded on 2026-09-19 and 2026-09-20. More graded copies in circulation is more supply at that grade — not a price claim.
+8slabs · 321 → 329 (+2.5%)
Between the population reports we recorded on 2026-09-19 and 2026-09-20. More graded copies in circulation is more supply at that grade — not a price claim.
+6slabs · 217 → 223 (+2.8%)
Between the population reports we recorded on 2026-09-19 and 2026-09-20. More graded copies in circulation is more supply at that grade — not a price claim.
+6slabs · 54 → 60 (+11.1%)
Between the population reports we recorded on 2026-09-18 and 2026-09-20. More graded copies in circulation is more supply at that grade — not a price claim.
+6slabs · 257 → 263 (+2.3%)
Between the population reports we recorded on 2026-09-19 and 2026-09-20. More graded copies in circulation is more supply at that grade — not a price claim.
+5slabs · 98 → 103 (+5.1%)
Between the population reports we recorded on 2026-09-19 and 2026-09-20. More graded copies in circulation is more supply at that grade — not a price claim.
What the words mean here
- Real sale
- A completed transaction we recorded, with the listing it came from. Every number above is built from these and nothing else.
- Inferred sale
- A sale reconstructed from a listing disappearing. We hold 9,789 of them from this week and none of them appear in this brief.
- Price-guide point
- A marketplace's published market or trend price — TCGplayer market, Cardmarket trend. We hold 353,638 of them and they are useful, but they are not sales and are never counted as one.
- A date we recorded, not a date published
- Some venues publish the date a sale happened; some publish only that it happened. Mercari Japan's sold grid carries a price and no date at all, and about half our eBay rows arrive stamped with the day the feed ran — for those the date we hold is the day we recorded the sale, an upper bound on when it sold. Yahoo! Japan, PSA's auction reports and the rest of eBay publish real sale dates. Nothing here invents a date: an entry whose comparison rests on recorded dates says so in its own line, and we do not claim an exact interval we cannot measure.
- A sale you cannot click
- Some venues delete a listing when it ends — Yahoo! Japan Auctions removes an auction page the moment it closes. Those sales are real, they were recorded, and they count in every number here; we just will not hand you a link that 404s.
- Asking price
- A live listing. What someone wants, not what anyone paid.
- One grade tier
- Every comparison is inside one grader, grade, print run and raw condition. A PSA 10 is never compared to a raw copy.
This brief is a record of recorded transactions, not advice. Hoshino does not forecast prices and does not tell anyone what to buy.
Archive
Every brief keeps its own permanent URL and its own numbers. A dated snapshot is never rewritten.