Daily Market Brief · 16 September 2026 · archive
What actually sold, and what it changed.
Computed at 2026-09-15 23:30 UTC from Hoshino's own recorded sales — real transactions only, compared inside one grade tier and one market. Where a day has too little data to say something true, this brief says so.
54,310Real sales · 7 days
3,114Cards traded · 7 days
14Venues reporting
2,480Inferred sales (excluded)
Of those 54,310 sales, 50,434 come from venues that publish no sale date — Mercari Japan chief among them — so their date is the day we recorded the sale, not the day it sold. Every entry below that rests on one says so.
Movers
Biggest real median moves, inside one grade tier and one market. A card only appears with at least 5 real recorded sales in each half of the comparison, the same venues on both sides, a new median outside the prior window's middle 50%, and a price spread tight enough to be one card rather than a catalog bucket. Some venues publish no sale date — Mercari Japan publishes none at all — so where an entry's two halves are separated by when we recorded the sales rather than by elapsed market time, the entry says so, and the move is a change between two cohorts rather than a measured interval.
Last 24hdated by sale where the venue publishes one, otherwise by the day we recorded it (6,278 of 6,605 this window)
No 24h mover clears the bar: 6,605 real sales carry a date inside the window against 394 in the one before it, and of 1,479 card/tier/market series examined, 1479 had too few sales on one side. Nothing is listed rather than something padded.
Last 7ddated by sale where the venue publishes one, otherwise by the day we recorded it (50,434 of 54,310 this window)
-34.8%$11.52 → $7.52 median
6 real sales dated inside this window against 32 in the one before, every one of them Raw NM in Japan. Every one of these sales, and every one of the 32 before them, comes from Mercari Japan, which publishes no sale date — for those rows the date we hold is the day we recorded the sale, an upper bound on when it sold. So the two windows are separated by when we looked rather than by seven days of market time: read this as a change between what we recorded in one stretch and what we recorded in the one before, not as a measured seven-day move. Venues this window: Mercari Japan; Mercari Japan also carried the previous window, covering 100% of these sales and 100% of those — so this is a price change, not a change of venue. The new median sits outside the prior window's middle 50% ($10.72–$12.53). Most recent sale behind it: $6.48 on Mercari Japan.
-33.3%$8.29 → $5.53 median
5 real sales dated inside this window against 7 in the one before, every one of them Raw NM in Japan. 5 of these 5 sales, and 6 of the 7 before them, come from Mercari Japan, which publishes no sale date — for those rows the date we hold is the day we recorded the sale, an upper bound on when it sold. So what separates the two windows is part elapsed market time and part collection schedule, and this is not a measured seven-day move. Venues this window: Mercari Japan; Mercari Japan also carried the previous window, covering 100% of these sales and 86% of those — so this is a price change, not a change of venue. The new median sits outside the prior window's middle 50% ($5.79–$8.57). Most recent sale behind it: $4.55 on Mercari Japan.
-27.2%$38.39 → $27.96 median
5 real sales dated inside this window against 50 in the one before, every one of them Raw NM in Japan. 2 of these 5 sales, and 49 of the 50 before them, come from Mercari Japan, which publishes no sale date — for those rows the date we hold is the day we recorded the sale, an upper bound on when it sold. So what separates the two windows is part elapsed market time and part collection schedule, and this is not a measured seven-day move. Venues this window: Yahoo! Japan Auctions, Mercari Japan; Yahoo! Japan Auctions, Mercari Japan also carried the previous window, covering 100% of these sales and 100% of those — so this is a price change, not a change of venue. The new median sits outside the prior window's middle 50% ($31.99–$42.55). Most recent sale behind it: $20.81 on Mercari Japan.
+21.9%$96.00 → $117 median
5 real sales dated inside this window against 5 in the one before, every one of them PSA 10 in Japan. 3 of these 5 sales, and 3 of the 5 before them, come from Mercari Japan, which publishes no sale date — for those rows the date we hold is the day we recorded the sale, an upper bound on when it sold. So what separates the two windows is part elapsed market time and part collection schedule, and this is not a measured seven-day move. Venues this window: Mercari Japan, Yahoo! Japan Auctions; Mercari Japan, Yahoo! Japan Auctions also carried the previous window, covering 100% of these sales and 100% of those — so this is a price change, not a change of venue. The new median sits outside the prior window's middle 50% ($73.60–$117). Most recent sale behind it: $120 on Mercari Japan.
-21.3%$69.87 → $55.00 median
6 real sales this window against 10 in the one before, every one of them Raw NM in North America. Venues this window: eBay (US), eBay CA; eBay CA, eBay (US) also carried the previous window, covering 100% of these sales and 100% of those — so this is a price change, not a change of venue. The new median sits outside the prior window's middle 50% ($61.24–$81.29). Most recent sale behind it: $55.00 on eBay (US).
The Japan–West gap
Where the same card, in the same grade tier, sells for less in Japan than in the West — and whether the gap survives freight, the import tariff and the selling fee. 30-day medians, at least 3 real sales on each side. Some venues publish no sale date — Mercari Japan publishes none at all — and on a side made of those, the 30 days are the days we recorded the sales rather than the days they sold. Each entry says which of its sides that applies to; the medians are real prices either way.
Boa Hancock (Illustration Box Vol.1) (Textured)One Piece Promotion Cards · #ST17-004Raw NMJapan → United States
+95.1%Japan $10.24 vs United States $19.98
| Japan median · 24 real sales | $10.24 |
| Shipping Japan → United States | $14.00 |
| Import tax (15%) | $1.54 |
| Landed cost | $25.78 |
| United States median · 10 real sales | $19.98 |
| Less eBay selling fee | −$3.05 |
| Net proceeds | $16.93 |
| Net of everything | −$8.85 |
Does not clear the round trip: freight, the 15% import tariff and the selling fee are larger than the gap. Both sides are Raw NM over 30 days. 24 of the 24 Japanese and 10 of the 10 United States sales come from Mercari Japan and eBay (US), which publish no sale date, so for those rows the 30 days are the days we recorded the sales rather than the days they sold. The two medians are still real prices from real sales; what we cannot claim is that they are dated to the day. Japanese sale: $10.24 on Mercari Japan. Western sale: $19.98 on eBay (US).
+92.7%Japan $7.68 vs United States $14.80
| Japan median · 104 real sales | $7.68 |
| Shipping Japan → United States | $14.00 |
| Import tax (15%) | $1.15 |
| Landed cost | $22.83 |
| United States median · 5 real sales | $14.80 |
| Less eBay selling fee | −$2.36 |
| Net proceeds | $12.44 |
| Net of everything | −$10.39 |
Does not clear the round trip: freight, the 15% import tariff and the selling fee are larger than the gap. Both sides are Raw NM over 30 days. 86 of the 104 Japanese sales come from Mercari Japan, which publishes no sale date, so for those rows the 30 days are the days we recorded the sales rather than the days they sold. The two medians are still real prices from real sales; what we cannot claim is that they are dated to the day. Japanese sale: $9.72 on Mercari Japan. Western sale: $11.97 on eBay CA.
+89.0%Japan $10.58 vs United States $19.99
| Japan median · 92 real sales | $10.58 |
| Shipping Japan → United States | $14.00 |
| Import tax (15%) | $1.59 |
| Landed cost | $26.17 |
| United States median · 3 real sales | $19.99 |
| Less eBay selling fee | −$3.05 |
| Net proceeds | $16.94 |
| Net of everything | −$9.23 |
Does not clear the round trip: freight, the 15% import tariff and the selling fee are larger than the gap. Both sides are Raw NM over 30 days. 91 of the 92 Japanese sales come from Mercari Japan, which publishes no sale date, so for those rows the 30 days are the days we recorded the sales rather than the days they sold. The two medians are still real prices from real sales; what we cannot claim is that they are dated to the day. Japanese sale: $11.52 on Mercari Japan. Western sale: $12.00 on eBay (US).
+78.0%Japan $5.32 vs Europe $9.48
| Japan median · 10 real sales | $5.32 |
| Shipping Japan → Europe | $16.00 |
| Import tax (20%) | $1.07 |
| Landed cost | $22.40 |
| Europe median · 3 real sales | $9.48 |
| Less Cardmarket selling fee | −$0.47 |
| Net proceeds | $9.01 |
| Net of everything | −$13.39 |
Does not clear the round trip: freight, the 20% import tariff and the selling fee are larger than the gap. Both sides are Raw NM over 30 days. 9 of the 10 Japanese sales come from Mercari Japan, which publishes no sale date, so for those rows the 30 days are the days we recorded the sales rather than the days they sold. The two medians are still real prices from real sales; what we cannot claim is that they are dated to the day. Japanese sale: $3.84 on Mercari Japan. Western sale: $7.38 on eBay UK.
+66.4%Japan $22.27 vs United States $37.05
| Japan median · 23 real sales | $22.27 |
| Shipping Japan → United States | $14.00 |
| Import tax (15%) | $3.34 |
| Landed cost | $39.61 |
| United States median · 8 real sales | $37.05 |
| Less eBay selling fee | −$5.31 |
| Net proceeds | $31.74 |
| Net of everything | −$7.87 |
Does not clear the round trip: freight, the 15% import tariff and the selling fee are larger than the gap. Both sides are Raw NM over 30 days. 21 of the 23 Japanese sales come from Mercari Japan and Snkrdunk, which publish no sale date, so for those rows the 30 days are the days we recorded the sales rather than the days they sold. The two medians are still real prices from real sales; what we cannot claim is that they are dated to the day. Japanese sale: $53.00 on Snkrdunk. Western sale: $33.00 on eBay (US).
+64.6%Japan $6.07 vs United States $9.99
| Japan median · 6 real sales | $6.07 |
| Shipping Japan → United States | $14.00 |
| Import tax (15%) | $0.91 |
| Landed cost | $20.98 |
| United States median · 3 real sales | $9.99 |
| Less eBay selling fee | −$1.72 |
| Net proceeds | $8.27 |
| Net of everything | −$12.71 |
Does not clear the round trip: freight, the 15% import tariff and the selling fee are larger than the gap. Both sides are Raw NM over 30 days. 6 of the 6 Japanese sales come from Mercari Japan and Snkrdunk, which publish no sale date, so for those rows the 30 days are the days we recorded the sales rather than the days they sold. The two medians are still real prices from real sales; what we cannot claim is that they are dated to the day. Japanese sale: $20.00 on Snkrdunk. Western sale: $9.99 on eBay (US).
Of 17,143 card/grade combinations with real sales on either side in the last 30 days, 59 cleared every gate: 37 cheaper in Japan, 22 cheaper in the West, 0 clearing freight, tariff and selling fees on today's medians.
Grading
Cards where a real graded sale or a population change moved the grading-EV maths since the last brief.
−$15.80expected value $38.24 → $22.44 via PSA Japan Regular
Costed at $601 all-in against an expected sale of $623; break-even needs a 11% chance of a 10, modelled at 25% from a conservative prior — we hold no population data for this card. 13 real graded sales landed in the last 24 hours, latest $1,039 PSA 10 on Snkrdunk.
+$10.63expected value −$48.34 → −$37.71 via PSA Japan Regular
Costed at $371 all-in against an expected sale of $334; break-even needs a 29% chance of a 10, modelled at 25% from a conservative prior — we hold no population data for this card. 23 real graded sales landed in the last 24 hours, latest $865 PSA 10 on Snkrdunk.
−$9.08expected value −$39.51 → −$48.59 via PSA Japan Value
Costed at $131 all-in against an expected sale of $82.57; break-even needs a 65% chance of a 10, modelled at 25% from a conservative prior — we hold no population data for this card. 20 real graded sales landed in the last 24 hours, latest $146 PSA 10 on Snkrdunk.
Fresh supply
Sets released in the last 45 days that are actually trading.
13real sales this week across 2 cards, median $7.60
First sale we recorded for this set: 2026-08-29, against a stated release of 2026-08-21 — 48 of its 48 recorded sales fall on or after that date. Most valuable card in it by its own median: Monkey.D.Luffy (030) at $8.00 on 11 real sales. Most recent sale: $3.99 on eBay (US).
12real sales this week across 2 cards, median $27.50
First sale we recorded for this set: 2026-09-02, against a stated release of 2026-09-04 — 48 of its 55 recorded sales fall on or after that date. Most valuable card in it by its own median: Gagaga Girl - Cell Phone Subtraction (Extended Art) at $39.97 on 8 real sales. Most recent sale: $39.99 on eBay (US).
10real sales this week across 1 card, median $15.39
First sale we recorded for this set: 2026-08-21, against a stated release of 2026-08-28 — 73 of its 77 recorded sales fall on or after that date. Most valuable card in it by its own median: Miss Buckingham Stussy (Alternate Art) at $15.39 on 10 real sales. Most recent sale: $18.78 on Mercari Japan.
9real sales this week across 1 card, median $8.37
First sale we recorded for this set: 2026-09-04, against a stated release of 2026-08-14 — 18 of its 18 recorded sales fall on or after that date. Most valuable card in it by its own median: Inuyasha (045) (R*) at $8.37 on 9 real sales. Most recent sale: $11.00 on eBay (US).
7real sales this week across 3 cards, median $17.50
First sale we recorded for this set: 2026-08-26, against a stated release of 2026-08-21 — 283 of its 283 recorded sales fall on or after that date. Most valuable card in it by its own median: Trunks : Youth - ST01-013 (Alternate Art) at $27.03 on 2 real sales. Most recent sale: $17.50 on eBay (US).
Population
Graded populations that grew between the two most recent days we recorded them.
+82slabs · 248 → 330 (+33.1%)
Between the population reports we recorded on 2026-09-11 and 2026-09-15. More graded copies in circulation is more supply at that grade — not a price claim.
+11slabs · 506 → 517 (+2.2%)
Between the population reports we recorded on 2026-09-11 and 2026-09-15. More graded copies in circulation is more supply at that grade — not a price claim.
What the words mean here
- Real sale
- A completed transaction we recorded, with the listing it came from. Every number above is built from these and nothing else.
- Inferred sale
- A sale reconstructed from a listing disappearing. We hold 2,480 of them from this week and none of them appear in this brief.
- Price-guide point
- A marketplace's published market or trend price — TCGplayer market, Cardmarket trend. We hold 301,628 of them and they are useful, but they are not sales and are never counted as one.
- A date we recorded, not a date published
- Some venues publish the date a sale happened; some publish only that it happened. Mercari Japan's sold grid carries a price and no date at all, and about half our eBay rows arrive stamped with the day the feed ran — for those the date we hold is the day we recorded the sale, an upper bound on when it sold. Yahoo! Japan, PSA's auction reports and the rest of eBay publish real sale dates. Nothing here invents a date: an entry whose comparison rests on recorded dates says so in its own line, and we do not claim an exact interval we cannot measure.
- A sale you cannot click
- Some venues delete a listing when it ends — Yahoo! Japan Auctions removes an auction page the moment it closes. Those sales are real, they were recorded, and they count in every number here; we just will not hand you a link that 404s.
- Asking price
- A live listing. What someone wants, not what anyone paid.
- One grade tier
- Every comparison is inside one grader, grade, print run and raw condition. A PSA 10 is never compared to a raw copy.
This brief is a record of recorded transactions, not advice. Hoshino does not forecast prices and does not tell anyone what to buy.
Archive
Every brief keeps its own permanent URL and its own numbers. A dated snapshot is never rewritten.