Lugia-EXAncient Origins · #94/98 · Rare Ultra · 2015
The Hoshino Verdict
What this card’s market is actually doing — scored, stated and kept current.
Hoshino recorded 230 confirmed sales of this card in the last 12 months across 5 venues in North America and Taiwan. The market price is up 68% over the year, down 1% over 90 days and down 1% over 30 days. PSA has graded 3,240 copies of it, 493 of them Gem Mint 10 — a 15.2% gem rate (CGC 276, BGS 69 further). The most recent sale we hold is 3 days old.
Why does it price above the pack? It prices in the top 2% of the catalogue because only 493 copies have ever reached PSA 10 of the 3,240 PSA has graded, it is a rare ultra from Ancient Origins (2015) and the market has moved up 68% over the last year on 230 recorded sales.
Verdict recomputed 11m ago · it changes as the market does.
Lugia-EX is card 94 of 98 in Ancient Origins, released in 2015 as part of the XY series. It is a Rare Ultra card, illustrated by Ryo Ueda.
PSA reports 3,240 graded copies, 493 of them Gem Mint 10 (CGC 276, BGS 69 further). We hold 246 confirmed sales on record for this card across 5 venues in 2 regions — every price on this page traces back to them.
Descriptive market data, not investment advice. The Hoshino Score measures how deep, liquid, widely-traded, dear and scarce this card’s market is from sales and population records we hold. It is not a forecast, not a recommendation, and not a rating of this card as an investment.
Price by grade
What each grade’s real sales say — median of what actually sold.
Each grade is priced on the median of its own real sales — never averaged across grades, and never across printings. A 1st Edition, Shadowless or No Rarity copy is a different market from the ordinary print, so it gets its own row; where a grade holds sales of more than one printing and we cannot tell which copy sold, it is shown without a price — we abstain rather than publish the blend.
| Tier | Price | Confidence | Liquidity | Basis | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw (ungraded) | $150 | Limited2 of 5 confidence checks passed | 1 in 90d | 15 sales · last 3d ago | 15 |
| BGS 7 | — | — | none in 90d | 1 sale · single sale · pop 5 | 1 |
| CGC 8 | — | — | none in 90d | 1 sale · single sale · pop 103 | 1 |
| CGC 9 | $267 | Thin2 of 5 confidence checks passed | none in 90d | 2 sales · last 10mo ago · pop 92 | 2 |
| CGC 10 | — | — | none in 90d | 1 sale · single sale · pop 33 | 1 |
| PSA 1 | — | — | 3 in 90d | 15 sales · inverts ladder · pop 76 | 15 |
| PSA 2 | — | — | none in 90d | 1 sale · single sale · pop 15 | 1 |
| PSA 3 | — | — | 2 in 90d | 2 sales · inverts ladder · pop 24 | 2 |
| PSA 5 | — | — | 1 in 90d | 4 sales · inverts ladder · pop 139 | 4 |
| PSA 6 | $151 | Highest5 of 5 confidence checks passed | 1 in 90d | 11 sales · last 2mo ago · ceiling $267 · 1 sale, unconfirmed · pop 263 | 11 |
| PSA 7 | $180 | Highest5 of 5 confidence checks passed | 5 in 90d | 31 sales · last 1mo ago · pop 481 | 31 |
| PSA 8 | $250 | Highest5 of 5 confidence checks passed | 5 in 90d | 43 sales · last 3d ago · ceiling $893 · 3 sales, unconfirmed · pop 740 | 43 |
| PSA 9 | $450 | Highest5 of 5 confidence checks passed | 5 in 90d | 57 sales · last 24d ago · ceiling $1,250 · 9 sales, unconfirmed · pop 970 | 57 |
| PSA 10 | $4,200 | Highest5 of 5 confidence checks passed | 19 in 90d | 63 sales · last 7d ago · pop 493 | 63 |
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How confident are we in each of these prices?
There is no weighting and no hidden formula here. We ask five plain questions about the sales behind a price, and the rating is simply how many of them we can answer yes to. Every threshold is the one our pricing engine already uses to decide whether it trusts its own answer — none was invented for this rating. A grade we publish no price for gets no rating either: there would be nothing to rate.
- ✓Enough sales to have a middle — 12 confirmed sales at this exact grade (the observation count beside this rung also includes 3 rows reconstructed from a listing’s own lifecycle rather than a confirmed sale — those never count toward this check)
- ✗Those sales agree with each other — The middle half of them spread 59% around the median — wide enough that the median is close to a coin toss
- ✗The market traded it recently — Most recent sale 79 days ago — past the 45-day half-life at which our engine already halves a sale’s weight
- ✗More than one marketplace — Every sale came from the same marketplace, so this is one venue’s price rather than the market’s
- ✓Dated by the venue, not by us — Every sale carries a date its venue published
- ✗Enough sales to have a middle — 2 confirmed sales at this exact grade — under the 5 our pricing engine treats as a settled sample
- ✓Those sales agree with each other — The middle half of them spread 10% around the median
- ✗The market traded it recently — Most recent sale 288 days ago — past the 45-day half-life at which our engine already halves a sale’s weight
- ✗More than one marketplace — Every sale came from the same marketplace, so this is one venue’s price rather than the market’s
- ✓Dated by the venue, not by us — Every sale carries a date its venue published
- ✓Enough sales to have a middle — 11 confirmed sales at this exact grade
- ✓Those sales agree with each other — The middle half of them spread 21% around the median
- ✓The market traded it recently — Most recent sale 45 days ago
- ✓More than one marketplace — Sales came from 2 different marketplaces
- ✓Dated by the venue, not by us — Every sale carries a date its venue published
- ✓Enough sales to have a middle — 31 confirmed sales at this exact grade
- ✓Those sales agree with each other — The middle half of them spread 30% around the median
- ✓The market traded it recently — Most recent sale 35 days ago
- ✓More than one marketplace — Sales came from 2 different marketplaces
- ✓Dated by the venue, not by us — Every sale carries a date its venue published
- ✓Enough sales to have a middle — 43 confirmed sales at this exact grade
- ✓Those sales agree with each other — The middle half of them spread 32% around the median
- ✓The market traded it recently — Most recent sale 3 days ago
- ✓More than one marketplace — Sales came from 2 different marketplaces
- ✓Dated by the venue, not by us — Every sale carries a date its venue published
- ✓Enough sales to have a middle — 57 confirmed sales at this exact grade
- ✓Those sales agree with each other — The middle half of them spread 18% around the median
- ✓The market traded it recently — Most recent sale 24 days ago
- ✓More than one marketplace — Sales came from 2 different marketplaces
- ✓Dated by the venue, not by us — Every sale carries a date its venue published
- ✓Enough sales to have a middle — 63 confirmed sales at this exact grade
- ✓Those sales agree with each other — The middle half of them spread 26% around the median
- ✓The market traded it recently — Most recent sale 7 days ago
- ✓More than one marketplace — Sales came from 3 different marketplaces
- ✓Dated by the venue, not by us — Every sale carries a date its venue published
Cross-market comparisons and arbitrage routes are computed within one grade — PSA 10 against PSA 10, raw against raw. A route is never built from two different grades.
The same card in a different holder
What the market pays for this card at the same grade in each grader’s slab — and, if you hold one, what cracking it would have to return to be worth the fee.
Each grader’s price below is the median of that grader’s own recorded sales of this card at this exact grade. Nothing is averaged across graders and nothing is interpolated from a neighbouring grade. Every price here is the same figure the price-by-grade table above publishes — a rung that table abstains on is abstained on here too, and every fee, freight and tax figure is a real published rate from our cost model.
CGC 10 vs PSA 10
CGC 9 vs PSA 9
CGC 8 vs PSA 8
Price trend
Median market price over time, plus the sale-by-sale receipts.
Each point is a real recorded sale at that grade, over the full time we hold. Grades trade at very different prices, so the trend is per grade — pick a grade above.
Daily snapshot medians · US market · raw bucket. — the broader raw market-price trend across the same period, alongside the graded sales above.
PSA 9 population has grown from 958 on 2026-08-27 to 970 on 2026-09-21 (+12) — real grading-population readings, not a price.
Recent sales
| Sold | Venue | Region | Grade | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 3d ago | 🇺🇸 eBay (US) via PokéPriceTracker | North America | PSA 8 | $243 | auction view ↗ |
| 2026-09-17 4d ago | 🇺🇸 eBay (US) via PokéPriceTracker | North America | PSA 8 | $265 | auction view ↗ |
| 2026-09-14 7d ago | 🇺🇸 eBay (US) via PokéPriceTracker | North America | PSA 10 | $5,250 | auction view ↗ |
| 2026-09-13 8d ago | 🇺🇸 eBay (US) via PokéPriceTracker | North America | PSA 8 | $300 | auction view ↗ |
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The 4 most recent — confirmed sales first, then estimates; distinct price points, identical re-ingested rows count once, never stacked. The full 263-point sale-by-sale history unlocks with Pro. Venue is the marketplace the sale actually cleared on — eBay, Goldin, ALT, Fanatics, SNKRDUNK and the rest — established from the sale’s own listing URL, its auction house, or the feed’s own declaration of the venue. A via tag names the data feed that delivered the record; the feed is never the venue. Where none of those establish a marketplace the row says venue not disclosed rather than naming one we cannot prove. Rows tagged guide are marketplace price-guide points (TCGplayer market / Cardmarket trend), not confirmed sales; rows tagged est. are inferred from a listing that left the market, not directly-recorded sales. Rows tagged recorded come from a venue that publishes no sale date — Mercari Japan publishes none — so the date shown is the day we recorded the sale, an upper bound on when it sold. The price is real either way; we do not invent a date.
We hold 20 sales of this card that are not allowed to price anything. Every figure on this page was computed with them removed. See what we set aside for this card, and why →
See the 30-day, 90-day and 1-year charts and every past sale on record — date, venue, region, grade and the price it actually fetched.
Buy from around the world
The lowest live ask on every platform we track — cheapest first.
The cheapest live ask in every region we track — real global pricing, not just the US.
See every listing we track and the net spread — cheapest ask first, the difference after ~13% marketplace + payment fees.
Asks are what sellers want; the price above is what the market actually clears at. Pro shows both sides plus the spread net of fees.
Sold around the world
Daily market prices by region and platform — what this card actually changes hands for worldwide, kept apart from seller asks.
| Platform | Sales | Median | Low – High | Last sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🌐 PokéPriceTracker | 12 | $170 | $73.99 – $425 | $73.99 2mo ago |
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Daily market prices across 1 platform in North America — counts are distinct sales, never duplicated listings. Guide rows (TCGplayer market / Cardmarket trend) are labelled as estimates, not sales.
When this card goes under the hammer
Results from the consignment houses where high-end copies actually trade — each lot, dated, named, never averaged.
| Sold | House | Tier | Price realised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Goldin | PSA 10 | $3,600price realised | lot ↗ |
The top result above is 0.9× our published marketplace median for the same rung (PSA 10 · $4,200). That is not a contradiction and neither figure is wrong: a median describes where copies routinely change hands, and an auction record describes what one specific lot fetched on one specific day in front of bidders who wanted it. We publish both and blend neither.
These are individual consignment-auction results, each one lot on one date at one house — they are listed, never averaged. Two auction results do not make a median: the lots differ in eye appeal, provenance and who was bidding that night. Nothing in this table prices any rung of the grade ladder above, and nothing here moves this card’s market value. Where we hold the hammer price and the buyer’s premium as separate figures we show both, because what the bidder paid and what the consignor was sold at are different facts; where we hold one figure we name which one it is rather than reconstructing the other.
Population reports
How many graded copies exist, and how fast that number is moving — scarcity in plain numbers.
PSA 3,240 graded copies
| Grade | Population |
|---|---|
| PSA 10 | 493 |
| PSA 9 | 970 |
| PSA 8 | 740 |
| PSA 7 | 481 |
| PSA 6 | 263 |
| PSA 5 | 139 |
| PSA 4 | 39 |
| PSA 3 | 24 |
| PSA 2 | 15 |
| PSA 1 | 76 |
CGC 276 graded copies
| Grade | Population |
|---|---|
| CGC 10 | 33 |
| CGC 9.5 | 4 |
| CGC 9 | 92 |
| CGC 8 | 103 |
| CGC 7 | 29 |
| CGC 6 | 10 |
| CGC 5 | 4 |
| CGC 4 | 1 |
BGS 69 graded copies
| Grade | Population |
|---|---|
| BGS 9.5 | 11 |
| BGS 9 | 34 |
| BGS 8 | 17 |
| BGS 7 | 5 |
| BGS 6 | 1 |
| BGS 5 | 1 |
BGS BL 1 graded copy
| Grade | Population |
|---|---|
| BGS BL 10 | 1 |
SGC 23 graded copies
| Grade | Population |
|---|---|
| SGC 9.5 | 3 |
| SGC 9 | 6 |
| SGC 8 | 5 |
| SGC 7 | 8 |
| SGC 3 | 1 |
Population over time — 39 new copies slabbed across 7 tiers in this window
| Tier | Trend | 2026-08-27 | 2026-09-21 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA 9 | 958 | 970 | +12 (1.3%) | |
| PSA 8 | 731 | 740 | +9 (1.2%) | |
| PSA 10 | 492 | 493 | +1 (0.2%) | |
| PSA 7 | 474 | 481 | +7 (1.5%) | |
| PSA 6 | 257 | 263 | +6 (2.3%) | |
| PSA 5 | 136 | 139 | +3 (2.2%) | |
| CGC 8 | 103 | 103 | no change | |
| CGC 9 | 91 | 92 | +1 (1.1%) |
Every point is a real population reading taken on the date shown — first reading 2026-08-27, latest 2026-09-21 (25 days). That is the whole window we hold for this card; it is not a one-year trend and we will not present it as one. A population can only grow — a card cannot be un-graded — so where a reading came back lower than the one before it, that is a partial crawl and the series carries the higher figure forward rather than drawing a fall that never happened.
Why this matters: scarcity is a flow, not a constant. A tier whose count is climbing is getting less scarce while its price chart says nothing at all — and a tier that has not moved in weeks is holding its scarcity. Nobody else publishes this per grade.
What grading this card would actually cost you
Every term in the sum, sourced — the slab’s real sale price, the marketplace’s published fee, the grader’s published rate.
Every graded row is that same sale, minus the same marketplace fee, minus the grader’s published fee, minus $12 of shipping both ways. The “vs raw” column is the only number that matters: what that outcome would leave you with over selling the card as it is now.
PSA · cheapest published service tier whose declared-value cap covers each outcome
| If it grades | Sells for | eBay fee | Grading | You net | vs raw | Of existing slabs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA 10 · 63 sales | $4,200 | −$557 | −$349PSA Super Express · 8d | $3,282 | +$3,153 | 15% |
| PSA 9 · 57 sales | $450 | −$60 | −$80PSA Regular · 35d | $298 | +$169 | 30% |
| PSA 8 · 43 sales | $250 | −$34 | −$80PSA Regular · 35d | $124 | −$4.24 | 23% |
“Of existing slabs” is how PSA’s 3,240 graded copies of this card actually landed. It is the base rate for the population, not the odds for your copy — the copies people submit are not a random sample, and we have never seen the card in your hand.
CGC · cheapest published service tier whose declared-value cap covers each outcome
| If it grades | Sells for | eBay fee | Grading | You net | vs raw | Of existing slabs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGC 9 · 2 sales | $267 | −$36 | −$35CGC Standard · 25d | $184 | +$55 | 33% |
“Of existing slabs” is how CGC’s 276 graded copies of this card actually landed. It is the base rate for the population, not the odds for your copy — the copies people submit are not a random sample, and we have never seen the card in your hand.
What this cannot tell you. Which grade your copy would get. That depends on centring, edges, surface and corners on the card in your hand, and we have never seen it — so there is no single headline number here and no “worth it / not worth it” verdict. Each row is one outcome, priced from that tier’s own real sales; a tier we publish no price for stays blank rather than borrowing a figure from the grade next to it. Turnaround is the grader’s published business-day estimate, and the market can move inside it. Descriptive market arithmetic, not investment advice.
Should you grade it?
Expected grade × daily market prices − grading fees = net value, per grader.
See the full grader ladder — chance of a 10, what a 10 and a 9 actually fetch, and the fee, expected value and ROI on every route.
Should you grade it? Every grader route, your cost basis, and Japan vs the West → · or scan a photo of your copy
Long-term outlook
Transparent scenario model from real solds, supply and demand — bands widen with time.
See where this card is projected to be in 10 years — scenario bands, every horizon, and the long-term verdict.
Scenario projection based on demand/supply trends and known catalysts. Not investment advice and not a guarantee of future prices.
What Lugia-EX actually does
The printed card — its attacks, what they cost, what it is weak to, and whether it is still tournament legal.
This attack does 20 damage times the amount of Energy attached to both Active Pokémon.
If there is any Stadium card in play, this attack does 70 more damage. Then, discard that Stadium card.
Card text, attacks and format legality come from the open card catalogue TCGdex. They describe the card as printed; nothing here is a price, an estimate or anything Hoshino computed. A field we hold no record for is left out rather than filled in.
More from Ancient Origins
Same set, same shelf.
Frequently asked questions
Every answer below is computed from the sales, population and catalogue records on this page — so it changes when the market does.
How much is Lugia-EX (Ancient Origins #94) worth?
Lugia-EX (Ancient Origins #94) is worth $149 based on daily market prices (16 distinct sales) on Hoshino. Typical range: $99.82–$204 (raw/ungraded).
Where can I buy or sell Lugia-EX (Ancient Origins #94)?
You can find Lugia-EX (Ancient Origins #94) on Hoshino, with live listings on eBay (US), eBay CA, Ruten (TW), eBay UK and recent solds from PokéPriceTracker. Each listing links directly to the seller’s page.
What is the graded value of Lugia-EX (Ancient Origins #94)?
Graded values for Lugia-EX (Ancient Origins #94): CGC 9 — $267; PSA 6 — $151; PSA 7 — $180; PSA 8 — $250; PSA 9 — $450; PSA 10 — $4,200. Each tier is priced on its own sales — Hoshino never mixes a PSA 10 with a raw copy.
Is Lugia-EX (Ancient Origins #94) going up or down in price?
Lugia-EX (Ancient Origins #94) is trending down in price. 30-day change: -1%. 1-year change: +68%. Based on live market data tracked on Hoshino.
How many Lugia-EX (Ancient Origins #94) have been graded?
Across PSA, CGC, BGS, BGS BL and SGC, 3,609 copies of Lugia-EX (Ancient Origins #94) have been professionally graded, based on population reports tracked on Hoshino.
What is the PSA 10 population of Lugia-EX (Ancient Origins #94)?
PSA has graded 493 copies of Lugia-EX (Ancient Origins #94) as Gem Mint 10, according to population reports tracked on Hoshino.
What does Lugia-EX (Ancient Origins #94) do?
Lugia-EX (Ancient Origins #94) is a 170 HP Colorless-type card (Basic). Its attacks are Aero Ball (20× damage), Deep Hurricane (80+ damage). It is weak to Lightning (×2). Illustrated by Ryo Ueda.
📛 Get the price badge
Embeddable price badges for Lugia-EX — pick the look, copy, paste. Live global data no US-only rival can show.
Drop any of these into a listing, blog or forum signature. Each shows the live number with its honest basis — real market price with sale-count provenance, or a clearly labelled guide estimate — and updates as new sales land (cached 1 hour). Add ?theme=light for light backgrounds.
Track Lugia-EX in your portfolio — free
Live value across every market we track, grade-EV on your exact copy, and alerts the second the price moves.